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But never mind all that, the game is most definitely on and Cardiff will welcome England in the only way it knows how: disdain.
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Steve Borthwick and his team arrive with a mixed bag of results and performances that he is very keen to stress is work in progress, but they do the helpful advantages of a consistent approach in terms of selection and not nearly going on strike following a fortnight long argument with their employers.
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The Wales squad do not have such positives, but will be in full siege mentality mode after a mortifying opening two rounds and the rest of the rugby world pointing and smirking at what captain Ken Owens calls a “laughing stock”.
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It’s easy to forget that despite being a tournament many of the games in the Six Nations are essentially one-off Test matches, where form is sometimes less important coming in than the intangibles of motivation, anger, and all-consuming will to stick it an old enemy. Wales have 1993, 2012, 2013 and 2019 to point to as examples of winning when it wasn’t really fancied, with many of those encounters against England teams better placed that this one.
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However, the drawback today is those previous Wales sides were nowhere near this level of shambles, either.
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Warren Gatland took a look at the Scotland game tape and decided it was a “let’s make nine changes” sort of performance.
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Louis Rees-Zammit is fit again and back on the wing, with Leigh Halfpenny hoping to finally make it through a warm-up unscathed to start at fullback. George North’s performance was so lacking vs the Scots that he’s out of the squad completely and replaced by Cardiff’s uncapped Mason Grady who will partner Joe Hawkins in a very young centre partnership. Dan Biggar is sent to the bench as the Kiwi coach prefers a half-back pair of Owen Williams and Tomos Williams.
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In the forwards, Justin Tipuric and Taulupe Falatau regain their starting places in the back row, plus Alun Wyn Jones and Adam Beard reunite in the locks.
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Far fewer changes for England, all injury related. Anthony Watson starts on the wing due to Olly Hassell-Collins picking up a knock and Courtney Lawes’s return from the treatment table puts him on the bench.
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Wales: Leigh Halfpenny, Josh Adams, Mason Grady, Joe Hawkins, Louis Rees-Zammit; Owen Williams, Tomos Williams; Gareth Thomas, Ken Owens (captain), Tomas Francis, Adam Beard, Alun Wyn Jones, Christ Tshiunza, Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau
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Replacements: Bradley Roberts, Rhys Carre, Dillon Lewis, Dafydd Jenkins, Tommy Reffell, Kieran Hardy, Dan Biggar, Nick Tompkins
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England: Freddie Steward; Max Malins, Henry Slade, Ollie Lawrence, Anthony Watson; Owen Farrell (captain), Jack van Poortvliet; Ellis Genge, Jamie George, Kyle Sinckler, Maro Itoje, Ollie Chessum, Lewis Ludlam, Jack Willis, Alex Dombrandt
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Replacements: Jack Walker, Mako Vunipola, Dan Cole, Courtney Lawes, Ben Curry, Alex Mitchell, Marcus Smith, Henry Arundell
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Key events
Reading before the game.
What does Wales have to do today after this week? Rob Kitson considers it here…
In my preamble, I threw Wales a small die of possible victory. Am I angry? Feel free to inform me by e-mail or twitter.
Teams
Warren Gatland looked at the tape from Scotland and decided it was a “let’s make nine changes” kind of show.
Louis Rees-Zammit is fit again and back on the wing and Leigh Halfpenny is hoping to finally make it through the warm-up unscathed and start as a full-back. George North’s performance was so poor compared to the Scots that he was knocked out of the squad altogether and replaced by the unplayed Mason Grady of Cardiff who will partner Joe Hawkins in a very young mid-lan partnership. Dan Biggar is sent to the bench as Coach Kiwi prefers the defending pair of Owen Williams and Tomos Williams.
Forwards Justin Tipuric and Taulupe Falatau regain their starting spots in the back row, while Alun Wyn Jones and Adam Beard team up again in the locks.
Much less change for England, all injury related. Anthony Watson starts on the wing as Olly Hassell-Collins takes a knock and Courtney Lawes’ return from the treatment table puts him on the bench.
Wales: Leigh Halfpenny, Josh Adams, Mason Grady, Joe Hawkins, Louis Rees-Zammit; Owen Williams, Tomos Williams; Gareth Thomas, Ken Owens (Captain), Tomas Francis, Adam Beard, Alun Wyn Jones, Christ Tshiunza, Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau
Spare parts: Bradley Roberts, Rhys Carre, Dillon Lewis, Dafydd Jenkins, Tommy Reffell, Kieran Hardy, Dan Biggar, Nick Tompkins
England: Freddie Steward; Max Malins, Henry Slade, Ollie Lawrence, Anthony Watson; Owen Farrell (captain), Jack van Poortvliet; Ellis Genge, Jamie George, Kyle Sinckler, Maro Itoje, Ollie Chessum, Lewis Ludlam, Jack Willis, Alex Dombrandt
Spare parts: Jack Walker, Mako Vunipola, Dan Cole, Courtney Lawes, Ben Curry, Alex Mitchell, Marcus Smith, Henry Arundell
Preamble
It was the worst week in Welsh rugby since last week. The threat of player industrial action has been added to the non-exhaustive list of misogynistic culture, terrible management, and funding squabbles that have so far been swirling around WRU for nearly the entirety of 2023. As late as Wednesday afternoon, there was no guarantee that a match would go ahead until when some before the wire negotiations gave the players more of what they reasonably wanted, and Warren Gatland could breathe a sigh of relief and trade his team. You’re guessing the WRU didn’t dump the whole mess on Kiwi when they sought his return just a few months ago, and Gatland’s due diligence processes obviously need some work.
But whatever, the game is definitely on and Cardiff will greet England in the only way it knows how: contempt.
Steve Borthwick and his team arrive with a mix of results and performances, which puts a lot of emphasis on being on-going, but has the helpful advantages of a consistent approach to selection and not coming close to a strike after two weeks of bickering with employers.
The Wales side have no such positives but will be in full siege mentality after a humiliating two inning opener with the rest of the rugby world pointing and smiling with what captain Ken Owens calls “laughing stuff”.
It’s easy to forget that despite being tournaments, many Six Nations matches are essentially one-time test matches where form is sometimes less important than intangible motivations, anger and an all-consuming will to fight. old enemy. Wales have 1993, 2012, 2013 and 2019 as examples of victories when it really wasn’t fancy, and many of those fixtures against teams from England were better off than that.
However, today the downside is that previous Welsh teams were nowhere near this level of mess.
